Proverbs, aphorisms, quotations (English) | by Linux fortune |
May's Law: The quality of correlation is inversly proportional to the density of control. (The fewer the data points, the smoother the curves.) | |
Briefly stated, the findings are that when presented with an array of data or a sequence of events in which they are instructed to discover an underlying order, subjects show strong tendencies to perceive order and causality in random arrays, to perceive a pattern or correlation which seems a priori intuitively correct even when the actual correlation in the data is counterintuitive, to jump to conclusions about the correct hypothesis, to seek and to use only positive or confirmatory evidence, to construe evidence liberally as confirmatory, to fail to generate or to assess alternative hypotheses, and having thus managed to expose themselves only to confirmatory instances, to be fallaciously confident of the validity of their judgments (Jahoda, 1969; Einhorn and Hogarth, 1978). In the analyzing of past events, these tendencies are exacerbated by failure to appreciate the pitfalls of post hoc analyses. -- A. Benjamin | |
<Intention> "It's classic percolate-up economics, recognizing that money is like manure: It works best if you spread it around." <Knghtbrd> Intention: Carter's correlation: People with lots of either usually smell funny <Intention> Knghtbrd: You SO win. |